LIKE IT IS : SEC hopes shrink as tournament upsets mount

WALLY HALL

Posted on Wednesday, March 12, 2008

URL: http://www.wholehogsports.com/adg/219483/

It is exactly what the Southeastern Conference did not need.

The Sun Belt and West Coast conferences have most likely thrown a major monkey wrench into the SEC’s hopes of getting six teams to the NCAA Tournament.

Sun Belt Tournament host and No. 1 seed South Alabama lost in the semifinals, yet with its 26-6 overall record (16-2 in league play ) and No. 24 ranking in the RPI deserves an at-large bid, meaning the conference would have two teams instead of one in the Big Dance.

The WCC appeared poised to have two solid teams in — Gonzaga, winner of the league, and Saint Mary’s — but both lost in their tournament and San Diego won, so most likely there will be three teams from that conference playing in March Madness.

That’s possibly two at-large spots gone.

A look at all the standings Tuesday and a subjective but strict evaluation came up with a bracket that would have to add three spots to take care of the 68 that seem deserving.

Since there will be only 65 teams invited, at least three teams, maybe more, are going to be very disappointed Sunday when the official bracket is announced.

Yes, fans can go to various Web sites and find the Razorbacks as a No. 10 or No. 11 seed. And while the people filling out those brackets may be extremely knowledgeable about college basketball, they are just speculating right now.

While doing the tally that came up with 68 Monday, that was giving the SEC five berths.

Obviously, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are in.

Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi and Florida are considered bubble teams, and each can make a good argument for being chosen.

Granted, any of those could win the SEC Tournament this weekend too, but short of that each has some work to do.

Kentucky started very slowly but finished very strongly, and at 12-4 in SEC play is tied with Mississippi State for the secondbest overall conference record. The Wildcats are an impressive 8-2 in their last 10 games, have won two in a row and, as one player said, they are going to “Catlanta” to win.

Arkansas has 20 victories and finished second in the Western Division with a 9-7 record, but the Razorbacks’ RPI has slipped into the low 40 s. The Hogs finished the final 10 games 5-5 and have a one-game victory streak.

Mississippi has a very strong nonconference RPI and 21 victories, but is 6-9 since starting 15-0 and was 7-9 in SEC play. The Rebels, however, are 5-5 in the last 10 games and go to Atlanta with a three-game victory streak.

Florida is 21-10, thanks in large part to a soft nonconference schedule, but the Gators are the two-time defending national champs. They are riding a three-game losing streak and are 3-7 down the stretch.

Here is one opinion of what those four teams need to do to get the interest of the selection committee:

Kentucky needs to win one game, especially if it is against Ole Miss, which must beat Georgia and Kentucky to get invited.

Florida would have to make it to Sunday’s championship game and play very, very well. The Gators, like the Razorbacks a year ago, would not have to win it but just get there and play very, very well.

The Hogs need to win one game, most likely against Vanderbilt, which may have some payback on its mind. But the Commodores will be playing their second game in two days and have the comfort of knowing they are in the NCAA Tournament regardless.

That is a subjective opinion like the premature brackets that are posted all over the Internet. But all of that proves one thing — the majority of Americans love March Madness.

Which is why they read the brackets, even as they change daily as upsets occur in conference championship games, which is not a good thing for the SEC.